Ten Years of Order Management Ideas: What Became Operating Practice, and What Stayed on the Slide

Ten Years of Order Management Ideas: What Became Operating Practice, and What Stayed on the Slide

Between about 2015 and 2020, retailers were sold a set of ideas about how orders should work: omnichannel, unified commerce, headless and then composable commerce, distributed order management, click and collect, ship-from-store, the endless aisle. Each came with a conference circuit, an analyst framework and a confident forecast. Most of us in this industry have a slide from that period somewhere, and some of us wrote them.

A decade on seems a fair time to score them, and the timing is not accidental. The next set of ideas, about AI agents and order operations, is being sold with the same confidence, often by the same companies. Before we write about where the money is going now, which is the subject of the second part of this piece, it is worth being honest about what the last round actually delivered. We have tried to use evidence a sceptic would accept: earnings releases and filings, analyst surveys with their sample sizes, and what happened to the vendors.

Omnichannel

The promise. Deloitte's "Navigating the New Digital Divide" study (May 2015) said digital interactions were expected to influence 64 cents of every dollar spent in US stores by the end of 2015, about $2.2 trillion. A Harvard Business Review study of 46,000 shoppers (Sopadjieva, Dholakia and Benjamin, January 2017) found that 73% used multiple channels, and that omnichannel shoppers spent 4% more per in-store occasion and 10% more online than single-channel shoppers. The retailer that bet hardest was Target. At its February 2017 financial community meeting it committed more than $7 billion of capital over three years, said store backrooms would "double as hyperlocal distribution centers", and promised that all Target stores would ship from store by 2019. A month later its CEO told Shoptalk that stores already fulfilled close to 55% of online orders, as reported by Retail Dive.

What became practice. At Target it is now simply how the company works. For fiscal 2025, Target reported that stores fulfilled 97.6% of merchandise sales (a figure that includes in-store purchases as well as ship-from-store, Order Pickup, Drive Up and same-day delivery), that digitally originated sales were 20.6% of merchandise sales, and that same-day delivery powered by Target Circle 360 grew more than 30%, according to its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings release of 3 March 2026. Digital Commerce 360 reported from the same results that same-day services were more than $14 billion, about two-thirds of Target's eCommerce sales. Walmart's second-quarter fiscal 2027 release (20 August 2026) reported global eCommerce growth of 23%, Walmart US eCommerce growth of 24%, and store-fulfilled delivery up 40% in the quarter. Dick's Sporting Goods told the RILA LINK conference in February 2025 that its stores now fulfil almost 90% of online purchases, up from about 70% in 2021, as reported by Supply Chain Dive.

What stayed on the slide. The word itself. GlobalData counted mentions of "omnichannel" in apparel company filings at 379 in 2018, a peak of 2,195 in 2021, and 758 in the first nine months of 2023 (Just Style, 26 September 2023). More telling, omnichannel did not save the retailers whose problem was not channels. JCPenney's CEO said in November 2017 that over 90% of its online purchases touched a physical store, that ship-from-store had grown from 250 stores to the whole network, and that more than $1 billion of store inventory was exposed to online customers (Diginomica, 13 November 2017). The company filed for Chapter 11 in May 2020. Macy's described itself as an omnichannel retailer in its filings throughout the period and still does; its digital penetration reached 35% of net sales in fiscal 2025, and it reported 378 Macy's department stores at 31 January 2026 after closing 64 in late 2024 (fourth-quarter 2025 investor presentation, 18 March 2026).

Why. Omnichannel became real where it was an inventory and fulfilment decision, which is to say where the retailer spent money so that a store could see, reserve and ship stock against an online order. It stayed a word where it was a customer-experience ambition with no change underneath to how stock and orders were held.

Unified commerce

The promise. Boston Retail Partners' 2016 surveys of North American retailers found about 22% had implemented a single unified commerce platform and reported that 73% planned to have one by 2019 (Retail TouchPoints, December 2016). Its 2018 survey of 500 retailers put implementation at 28% and said 81% would deploy a unified commerce platform by the end of 2020 (Retail Dive, 6 February 2018). IHL Group's January 2016 white paper on the subject conceded in its opening pages that "there may not be a universal agreement on what these technologies constitute".

What became practice. The part that could be bought and measured. Bain and Aptos surveyed more than 300 retail executives in the US, UK and Canada for "The State of Unified Commerce" (15 November 2023) and found that around 80% had invested in real-time inventory visibility and 85% used third-party solutions for it. The same study found that 45% had no strategic roadmap for unified commerce, only about 55% considered their strategy clear and well defined, and only 42% said their stores were prepared to support it.

What stayed on the slide. The single platform. By Forrester's reading the label had stopped meaning anything by 2024. In a blog post titled "Unified Commerce Is Not A Thing" (28 October 2024), Forrester analysts Emily Pfeiffer and Lauren Cevallos wrote that "so many vendors use it, and they all mean something different when they talk about what they're unifying", and that the more recent definitions were "basically just 'omnichannel'".

Why. The 81%-by-2020 forecast measured intent to buy a category that vendors defined differently from each other. The investment that actually happened was narrower and more useful: one view of stock across locations, which is a data project rather than a platform.

Headless, composable and MACH

The promise. The term headless commerce is often credited to commercetools co-founder Dirk Hoerig in 2013, and Forrester recommended loosely coupling commerce front and back ends in a report of November 2013. By 2018 the idea had its own funding round (Moltin's $8 million Series A, February 2018) and its own product line at BigCommerce, which launched BigCommerce for WordPress in June 2018 as a "headless Commerce-as-a-Service offering". Gartner then coined composable commerce in June 2020 with the prediction that "by 2023, organizations that have adopted a composable approach will outpace competition by 80% in the speed of new feature implementation", and the MACH Alliance was formed the same month by Amplience, commercetools, Contentstack, EPAM and Valtech. Money followed. commercetools raised $140 million at a $1.9 billion valuation in September 2021 (TechCrunch); Shogun raised $67.5 million in June 2021; Nacelle raised $50 million from Tiger Global in August 2021; fabric raised a Series C led by SoftBank at about a $1.5 billion valuation in February 2022 (Reuters).

What became practice. The architecture, almost universally, and inside the incumbents rather than instead of them. Shopify launched Commerce Components in January 2023 as a "composable stack for enterprise retail", with Mattel among its first customers. Salesforce built its Composable Storefront on the Mobify acquisition of 2020. Adobe moved Adobe Commerce to a multi-tenant cloud service in 2025. On the demand side, the MACH Alliance's own 2025 research (561 enterprise IT decision-makers, January 2025) reported that 87% had widely implemented MACH technologies, which should be read as a commissioned survey of large enterprises. A more independent picture came from Elastic Path and Retail Dive's survey of 200 US retail leaders (7 November 2023): 92% had implemented some composable solution, but 69% said the implementation took more than six months, 27% more than a year, and 32% named building and managing integrations as a major obstacle.

What stayed on the slide. Headless as a standalone category, and the idea that the storefront was where the value was. Gartner placed API-based digital commerce in the trough of disillusionment in its 2022 hype cycle, with 5% to 20% penetration, as the MACH Alliance itself reported at the time. Shogun sunset its headless Frontend product in March 2023 and kept its page builder. Chord's CEO told Practical Ecommerce in May 2026 that headless "required merchants to maintain a lot of infrastructure" and that "around 2023, we shifted from being dogmatic about headless to being platform-agnostic". Parachute, which went headless in 2019 and grew its engineering team from two to fourteen, returned to a standard Shopify theme in 2024, with projected savings of over $1 million a year in a case study published by Shopify, so the source is interested. The pioneer had a hard two years: commercetools replaced its founder as CEO in July 2024, cut around 10% of staff in February 2025 with a memo saying it had not "fully achieved our aggressive revenue growth targets" (TechCrunch), and changed CEO again in October 2025. BigCommerce explored a sale in 2024 (Reuters, via DealStreetAsia), changed its CEO in October 2024, and renamed itself Commerce.com in July 2025 around an agentic commerce and data strategy.

Why. Composability won as an engineering principle because APIs are how everything connects now, including to AI. It lost as a buying category because for most merchants the storefront was not where the complexity was, and a separately built front end added cost without touching orders, stock or fulfilment. The vendors that survived moved toward data and orchestration, which is where Part 2 of this piece picks up.

Distributed order management as a category

The promise. Distributed order management was the system that would make the rest of the list work: one place that knew every unit of stock in every location and decided, order by order, where it should be fulfilled from. Gartner published its first Market Guide for retail distributed order management in November 2015 and, in the 2017 edition, defined the purpose of a DOM application as allowing retailers "to maximize order fulfillment" while balancing on-time, in-full delivery against the lowest fulfilment cost. Forrester's Wave for omnichannel order management of Q3 2016 evaluated nine vendors: Aptos, IBM, Jagged Peak, Kibo, Manhattan Associates, NetSuite, Oracle, Radial and SAP Hybris. A Logistics Viewpoints survey published in February 2018 found 58% of respondents already using a DOM, 28% planning to within 12 to 18 months, and 65% shipping from store. Forrester forecast in March 2022 that global OMS software spend would grow from $1.0 billion in 2021 to $1.9 billion in 2026, which is a real but small market.

What became practice. A DOM, or something doing its job, now sits under most of the store-fulfilment numbers above, and the category has kept its analysts. Forrester's OMS Wave of Q2 2023 named Manhattan Associates the only Leader; its Q1 2025 Wave (21 January 2025) named Manhattan, Fluent Commerce and Kibo as Leaders. Manhattan's second-quarter 2026 results reported cloud subscription revenue of $126.7 million, up 26%, and remaining performance obligations of $2.47 billion, up 23%, which is what an installed category looks like. Money has kept arriving further down the market too: OneStock raised $72 million from Summit Partners in May 2024, Pipe17 raised $15.5 million in January 2025, and Fluent Commerce raised A$46 million from Bain Capital in February 2026.

What stayed on the slide. The clean replacement. Nextuple's survey of 302 retailers and grocers with Retail Dive (January 2024) found that IBM, SAP and Oracle still held 44% of the OMS market, that 69% relied on outside experts to deploy, that only 23% believed their vendor offered modern technology, and that every respondent was nonetheless likely to stay with their current supplier at the next upgrade. Forrester's lead analyst wrote in January 2025 that "the rip-and-replace is less common than ever" and that the dominant pattern was augmenting an existing system with individual modules of a more modern one, and in May 2025 that "most reference customers we interviewed didn't champion their vendor partner". The risk of a big-bang order system was shown early: Finish Line went live on a new warehouse and order management system in the autumn of 2015, could not process orders at volume by October, and estimated as much as $32 million in lost sales in its fiscal third quarter, after which the CEO was replaced (Retail Dive). The big platforms also had a mixed decade in the category. Salesforce launched its own Order Management in January 2020; Microsoft launched Dynamics 365 Intelligent Order Management in 2021 and its product blog has not posted since April 2024; Shopify, which had bought Deliverr for $2.1 billion, sold its logistics business to Flexport in May 2023.

Why. DOM became operating practice because the store-fulfilment economics made it necessary, but it was adopted as a layer added beside existing systems rather than as the new system of record, and the retailers who tried to replace everything at once tended to regret it. Forrester's May 2025 note added a detail that matters for what comes next: an OMS that does not provide near-real-time inventory availability "just won't cut it anymore". Nucleus Research's 2026 OMS Value Matrix (April 2026) describes the product as "the connective orchestration layer" rather than "a back-office order book", which is also how the newest entrants describe themselves.

Click and collect, curbside and ship-from-store

The promise. ICSC's consumer survey after Thanksgiving 2017 (1,016 adults, fielded 25 November 2017) found that 25% of shoppers had bought online for pickup in store, and that 69% of those spent additional money in the store or centre. In March 2018 Walmart said it would expand grocery pickup from about 1,200 to about 2,200 stores before 2019 (CNBC), having installed automated Pickup Towers in more than 1,500 stores from 2017. Best Buy's then chief executive, Hubert Joly, said in June 2015 that 40% of the company's online orders were picked up in its stores (MPR News).

What became practice. This is the clearest success on the list. Best Buy's CEO Corie Barry said on the fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 call (4 March 2025) that 45% of online revenue was picked up in stores during the quarter. Adobe Analytics reported curbside pickup at 17.5% of online orders in the 2024 holiday season and 17.1% in 2025 for retailers that offer it, with a peak of 39.0% of online orders on 23 December 2025, when carrier cut-offs had passed (Adobe, 7 January 2026). Digital Commerce 360 found that in 2025 retail chains offering curbside converted at 4.1% against a chain average of 2.9% (Digital Commerce 360, 11 June 2026). Target's same-day services, which include Order Pickup and Drive Up, were the $14 billion business described above.

What stayed on the slide. The hardware and the pandemic peak. Walmart removed about 300 Pickup Towers and put about 1,300 into hibernation in April 2021 because, in the Wall Street Journal's account as carried by Chain Store Age, customers preferred to collect outside. Curbside, which 55.1% of Digital Commerce 360's Top 1000 chains offered at the 2020 peak, was offered by 24.8% in 2024, even though it converts best. And the metric has quietly stopped being reported. Best Buy's fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 call (3 March 2026) gave online revenue of $4.9 billion, 39.0% of domestic revenue, and said 70% of online purchases were fulfilled within two days, but did not mention the pickup share at all.

Why. Click and collect worked because it is cheaper for the retailer than a parcel and faster for the customer than a carrier, and because the data it needs, which is accurate store stock and a reservation against it, is the same data ship-from-store needs. It became so ordinary that retailers stopped calling it out.

The endless aisle

The promise. Forrester research reported by Digital Commerce 360 in April 2015 put endless-aisle sales at 1% to 10% of store revenue for the retailers doing it, and estimated that about 10% of store sales were lost to out-of-stocks. JCPenney's "$1 billion of inventory exposed" to online customers, above, was the same idea from the other direction.

What became practice. Not the kiosk. None of the retailers whose filings and calls we reviewed for this piece (Target, Walmart, Best Buy, Macy's, Kohl's, Nordstrom, Dick's) reports endless-aisle or save-the-sale revenue as a metric in 2024 to 2026. What the idea became was two other things. One is network inventory, where the store can see and ship what the warehouse holds, which is the ship-from-store story. The other is the marketplace: Target Plus grew more than 30% in fiscal 2025, according to Target's fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call, and Walmart's marketplace net sales grew more than 50% in the second quarter of fiscal 2027. The endless aisle is now third-party sellers on the retailer's own site rather than a tablet on the shop floor.

Why. Bain and Aptos' 2023 finding is the explanation in two numbers: about 80% of retailers had invested in real-time inventory visibility, but only 42% said their stores were prepared to use it. The data layer got built; the in-store selling motion mostly did not.

A note on returns

Returns were the part of omnichannel that nobody put on the first slide and everybody ended up running. Inditex's chairman said in March 2019 that 60% of its online order returns took place in Zara stores, and that around a third of online orders were collected there (FashionNetwork). The NRF and Happy Returns' 2025 Retail Returns Landscape (15 October 2025) put US returns at $849.9 billion, 15.8% of sales, with an online return rate of 19.3%. Whether a store can accept, inspect and restock a return against the original order is the same question as whether it can ship one, and it is answered by the same data.

The scorecard

What the pattern says

Read across the rows and the pattern is fairly consistent. The ideas that became operating practice are the ones that changed how a retailer holds and moves data about stock, stores and orders: where a unit is, whether a store can see it and reserve it, whether an order can be routed to it, and whether it can come back. The ideas that stayed on the slide are the ones that were labels for a platform purchase, or that changed the customer-facing surface without changing anything underneath.

That matters now because the current wave of AI investment in commerce is being pitched to the same buyers, often with the same vocabulary. In the second part of this piece we look at where the money is actually going in 2025 and 2026, and whether it is being spent on the surface or on the layer underneath.

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Sources

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